According to WeatherOptics predictions, a major storm will move across the country from today (Wednesday) to Friday, with 80 million people under some sort of winter weather advisory and a large forecast impact on retail sales. Today’s Insight Flash shows where the biggest sales losses are expected to be as the storm moves across its path, with discounters the most likely to lose business.
As the storm moves across the country, there are varying impacts by retailer by state by day. The largest impacts are forecast to be in the beginning when Oklahoma is hit, with slightly smaller impacts in Arkansas and Missouri the next day, but growing strength towards the end when the storm hits populous Pennsylvania. In Oklahoma, Costco and Aldi are expected to see the largest sales declines today (2/2), dropping -45%. In Arkansas and Missouri, discounters Ollie’s Bargain Outlet and Nordstrom Rack may experience a double-digit decline in sales due to the storm. In Pennsylvania, Meijer could see a weather-related sales decline of -18% while Dollar Tree/Family Dollar and Big Lots could see declines of -15%.
Discovering Impacted Brands
The length, scope, and severity of the storm are likely strong enough to have a nationwide impact. Given Meijer’s concentrated footprint, it would be one of the retailers most likely to bear the brunt of severe weather. The company’s non-fuel business is expected to experience at -13% total sales decline Wednesday due to the weather, with another -10% decline tomorrow and -7% Friday. Ollie’s Bargain Outlet is projected to have a more downward path, with sales down only -1% Wednesday, growing to -6% Thursday and -9% Friday.