Market Hit: Casual diner BJ’s Restaurant and Brewery (BJRI) recently reported sales growth +2.3%, close to CE Transact implied reported growth +2%, and below consensus of +4.7%
In its recent earnings call, BJRI cited deteriorating traffic trends throughout the summer for slower sales growth, caused by last year’s abnormal seasonality due to “consumers enjoying their first summer without any COVID restraints”.
BJRI Total Sales Growth
BJRI Third Quarter Sales Trends
Management stated that third quarter sales trends reverted to pre-COVID patterns, which drove the return of the typical August/September slowdown which we can see in the CE consumer transaction data below.
BJRI vs Casual Dining Industry Trends
Turning ahead to 2023Q4, management noted that “the first 3 weeks of October are trending in the positive low-single digits, an improvement of more than 500 basis points from September levels”. This appears to be a significant divergence in trend compared to the overall Casual Dining sub-industry which is showing a continued sequential decline MoM.
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